Biden ‘convinced’ Putin has decided to invade Ukraine as troop buildup approaches 190K – USA TODAY

President Joe Biden said he’s “convinced” Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine, though he also said diplomacy has not been ruled out to prevent a war.

Addressing the nation about the unfolding crisis, the president said he was relying on “significant intelligence capability” when asked what’s led him to that conclusion. It was the second time this week he has delivered public remarks on the growing conflict with Russia.

While diplomacy continued in Europe and Washington over tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Moscow announced its military would conduct massive drills of its strategic nuclear forces this weekend. And a new report says Russia’s military buildup could involve as many as 190,000 troops.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are in Munich for a three-day security conference, at which efforts to diffuse the crisis in eastern Europe were concurrent with the program. On Friday, the vice president met with the leader of NATO and is scheduled to talk with Baltic state leadership.

“Our alliance and commitment to NATO is enduring,” Harris said.

More: Is Russia going to invade Ukraine? Satellite images show the latest Russian troop movements

On Russia, she said, “We remain open to and desirous of diplomacy,” she continued, noting there will be “severe consequences” for Moscow should it go forward with an invasion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will personally oversee Saturday’s exercise, which will involve multiple practice launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the Defense Ministry said, adding the exercises had been planned in advance. 

More: Cyberattacks and disinformation are everyday tactics for Putin’s Russia. Is that the future of war?

Biden ‘convinced’ Putin has ‘made the decision’ to invade Ukraine

Biden said he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has already made up his mind to invade Ukraine, giving his most direct assessment yet of an attack the White House has said could be imminent.

“As of this moment, I’m convinced he’s made the decision. I have reason to believe that,” Biden told reporters after giving a brief update on the situation. But he added: “Until he does, diplomacy is always a possibility.”

Biden said the U.S. has “reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to, intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, the coming days.” He said the U.S. believes Russia will target the Ukraine capitol, Kyiv — “a city of 2.8 million innocent people.”

“We’re calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly, not because we want a conflict, but because we’re doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving.”

— Joey Garrison

President says ‘Russia can still choose diplomacy’

Biden said Russia can still engage diplomatically with the United States and “return to the negotiating table.”

“The West is united and resolved. We’re ready to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it further invades Ukraine,” Biden said. “But I say again, Russia can still choose diplomacy.”

Biden noted that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet on Feb. 24.

“There are many issues that divide our nation and our world, but standing up to Russian aggression is not one of them,” Biden said. “The American people united. Europe is united. Transatlantic communities and our political parties in this country are united.”

– Rebecca Morin

Biden said attack could happen in the coming days

President Joe Biden said Friday the U.S. has reason to believe Russian forces are planning to attack Ukraine in the coming days.

Biden said there’s been a major uptick in violations of the ceasefire by Russian backed fighters attempting to provoke Ukrainians into a fight in eastern Ukraine.

And there continues to be “more and more disinformation being pushed out by to the Russian public,” he said.

He spoke shortly after the U.S. said Russia is responsible for widespread cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks and military websites this week.

The U.S. had said earlier in the day that Russia has as many as 190,000 troops in and near Ukraine, a significant increase from the 100,000 mobilized at the end of January.

Biden’s remarks also came after he spoke for nearly an hour with allies on both sides of the Atlantic.

The purpose of the call, he said, was to ensure that allies remain in lockstep in their response.

He said the call showed “unanimity, determination and resolve.”

– Maureen Groppe

Biden praises Ukraine for restraint

Biden praised Ukraine for showing “great judgment” and restraint as Russia’s actions have escalated in recent day.

“They refuse to allow the Russians to bait them into war,” he said. “But the fact remains Russian troops currently have Ukraine surrounded.”

Before Biden’s remarks, White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked whether the U.S. has told Ukraine it should not respond to provocations.

Psaki said the U.S. has been speaking vocally and privately about the intended purpose of Russia’s actions, including whether they’re trying to provoke a response.

“Obviously, that would not be a positive step at this point,” she said. “We have conveyed that, certainly, in a range of ways.”

– Maureen Groppe

Biden: Putin not ‘remotely’ mulling nuclear weapons despite exercises

Biden said it’s unlikely that Russia’s military drills of strategic nuclear forces this weekend is a sign Russian President Vladimir Putin is contemplating a nuclear war.

“I don’t think he is remotely contemplating using nuclear weapons,” Biden said. “But I think he is focused on trying to convince the world that he has the ability to change the dynamics in Europe in a way that he cannot.”

Biden added, however, that “it’s hard to read his mind.”

Moscow earlier announced its military would conduct massive drills of its strategic nuclear forces this weekend.

– Maureen Groppe

White House blames Russia for cyberattacks on Ukraine

Biden administration officials for the first time Friday attributed the widespread cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks and military websites earlier this week to Russia, suggesting that it was part of a broader cyber offensive that could be a prelude to a conventional military attack.

“We believe the Russian government is responsible for the widespread cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks,” White House deputy national security adviser Anne Neuberger said at a White House briefing Friday afternoon

Neuberger’s remarks came after she outlined a host of ways that Russia has used cyberwarfare as part of a broader hybrid warfare effort against Ukraine and other adversaries over the years. She acknowledged that it was unusual for the United States to go public with such an attribution but stopped short of saying that Russia is engaged in a broader cyber-effort, either as part of a preparation for a conventional military invasion, or as an alternative to it.

But, Neuberger said, “Russia does use cyber as part of its projection of force… We may see further destabilizing or destructive cyber activities.”

– Josh Meyer

Separatists regions call for evacuations, countering West warnings

Immediate worries on Friday focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people.

A bombing struck a car outside the main government building in the major eastern city of Donetsk, according to an Associated Press journalist there. The head of the separatists’ forces, Denis Sinenkov, said the car was his, the Interfax news agency reported.

There were no reports of casualties and no independent confirmation of the circumstances of the blast. Uniformed men inspected the burned-out car. Broken glass littered the area,

Shelling and shooting are common along the line that separates Ukrainian forces and the rebels, but targeted violence is unusual in rebel-held cities like Donetsk.

Related: What is a false flag? US says Russia may use the tactic to justify Ukraine invasion

However, the explosion and the announced evacuations were in line with U.S. warnings of so-called false flag attacks that Russia would use to justify an invasion. The U.S. State Department noted that Secretary of State Antony Blinken had warned of “this type of false-flag operation” on Thursday at the U.N. Security Council.

Separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that form Ukraine’s industrial heartland known as the Donbas said they are evacuating civilians to Russia. The announcement appeared to be part of Moscow’s efforts to counter Western warnings of a Russian invasion, and paint Ukraine as the aggressor instead.

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Russian may have built up as many as 190K troops 

Russian troops in and near Ukraine have grown from about 100,000 at the end of January to between 169,000 and 190,000, the U.S. envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Friday.

“This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War,” Ambassador Michel Carpenter said at a meeting of the regional security organization in Vienna.

Carpenter charged Russia, which did not participate in the meeting, with refusing to answer questions about its “unprecedented military buildup.”

More: Is Russia going to invade Ukraine? Some images suggest pullback. US says not true.

“Rather than provide transparency and engage in risk reduction, Russia has chosen to provide disinformation and engage in denial and deception,” Carpenter said.  “It cynically tries to portray Ukraine, NATO, and the United States as aggressors at the same time as it positions a massive strike force, threatening to invade its neighbor.”

Carpenter repeated frequent warnings from U.S. officials that Russia is intent on creating a pretext to justify an invasion into Ukraine and could invade “at any moment.”

– Maureen Groppe

Expla: Missiles, military drills and NATO: How diplomacy could defuse a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine

Harris at Munich Security Conference

Harris takes a visible role on the world stage this weekend as the top American official at the Munich Security Conference.

Harris met Friday with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, as well as with the leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

“We remain of course supportive of diplomacy as it relates to the dialogue and discussions we’ve had with Russia, but we are also committed to taking corrective actions to ensure there will be severe consequences in terms of the sanctions we have discussed,” she said ahead of a meeting with Stoltenberg.

On Saturday, she is to deliver a major address on the administration’s efforts to stop Russian aggression. After the speech, she’s expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

More: How Ukraine became the independent democracy it is today: A visual perspective of the country’s history

Blinken to meet Lavrov

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet his Russian counterpart in Europe late next week, said State Department spokesperson Ned Price in a statement.

“The Secretary noted in his remarks at the UN Security Council today that, because we believe the only responsible way to resolve this crisis is through diplomacy and dialogue, he had proposed to meet Foreign Minister Lavrov in Europe next week,” Price said.

“The Russians have responded with proposed dates for late next week, which we are accepting, provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine. If they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy. We will continue to coordinate with our Allies and partners and push for further engagements with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council and OSCE,” the statement concluded.

Contributing: Associated Press